Anzalone Liszt for Nancy Boyda (5/12-15, likely voters):
Nancy Boyda (D-inc): 54
Jim Ryun (R): 37Nancy Boyda (D-inc): 57
Lynn Jenkins (R): 27
(n=403)
Those are some very impressive numbers for Boyda, whom many have considered in serious jeopardy this year as she begins her first re-election campaign. But her re-elects (54-35) and her job approval rating (68-21) are very strong. Particularly impressive is her performance against ex-Rep. Ryun, who must have some significant name recognition in the district.
Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 45-38 in Kansas’ 2nd CD. In 2004, Bush smoked Kerry by 59-39 in this district.
Special thanks to the good folks over at Boyda Bloc for sharing these numbers.
SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.
A pat on the back to those of us who toil in deep red vineyards. The significance of Boyda’s success is measured in small part by Crisitunity’s post indicating that, compared to every other congressional district in the United States, the votes of the Representative of the 2nd Congressional District of Kansas moved farther from right to left than the votes from all but three other congressional districts subsequent to the 2006 Congressional election. This fourth-place rating is largely because the then-incumbent Jim Ryun was rated the one very most right wing Member of Congress. The distance was far-right toward the center. Boyda herself is the soul of moderation, but not moderation of reflexive baby-splitting variety. Rather her voice is a constructive one. She is much worth listening to regarding many topics, not the least of which is Iraq.
Can anyone say landslide? Lets just hope we can sustain it.
Anzalone Liszt polled MS-01 and LA-06 for our Dem candidates in the special elections and their results were actually very accurate.
Boyda really has been excellent for this district- she’s home almost every weekend, and she’s held literally hundreds of public meetings all over the eastern half of the state in the last year. While I’m shocked to see her in such good shape, it’s a testament to the job she’s done keep in touch with her district.
not so bad for an R+7, huh?
and may the primary be a BLOODY MESS!!!!(and EXPENSIVE)
here about 8 months ago for daring to suggest that Jim Ryun would be the more the formidable opponent for Nancy Palmer Boyda than Lynn Jenkins in 2008. The old moderates are more formidable than ring wing conservatives argument was thrown in my face by several posters. Kansas is the home of fanaticism on the right and common wisdom that might work in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania need not apply to Kansas. I stood my ground then and the above polling numbers do indeed show that Ryun fares better than Jenkins against Boyda.
The funny thing about this race is I am an e-mail friend of her father Sam Palmer as we are both into genealogy and have a family connection 6 generations ago. I knew Sam for some time before I realized his daughter was the woman who ran in KS-2 in 2004 and lost. I knew he had a daughter Nancy Palmer, I just didn’t realize Nancy Boyda was Nancy Palmer Boyda and when I finally connected the dots I couldn’t believe it, lol. I don’t look for congressional nominees when doing genealogy after all. Due to the distant family connection I have followed her career path very closely ever since and in 2006 I was among (or was) the first on this site to state I thought she would take down Jim Ryun at a time when Rahm Emmanuel ( who threw Nancy under the bus in 2006 due to her 2004 loss ) and the DCCC failed to realize the upset potential was there.
Boyda won because she ran a very effective and aggressive ground game, her yard signs were everywhere in the district, plus she did not write off the military vote as given Republican (KS-2 has 3 of Kansas 4 military bases within its current boundaries) and Jim Ryun was over confident and lazy. The combination was deadly to his career.
Go Nancy Go!
I’ve always believed that Nancy Boyda was doing a good job working her district and that she was a better fit than a lot of pundits believe. By November, she and Jerry McNerney will not be on the endangered list.
To not accept DCCC money and to not even go to Denver in order to help her constituents have something to do with these high approval and reelection numbers as well?
I really like Boyda and I was worried about her chances. Safe Dem, hell, they are as good as Walz’s poll numbers in a R+1 seat!
Damn, now I guess I wasted $15 on a race that didnt need any help to begin with!
Hope it holds.
This is not necessarily news to those of us who live in this district. Boyda has done very well keeping in touch with the district/constituents, and these results reflect how these efforts have paid off. Look for Boyda to capture 55% or more in November, especially if Ryun is the Republican nominee. He is too conservative for this district. Recall that a Democrat, Jim Slattery, held this seat for 12 years prior to Ryun and Brownback. This is more of a swing district than the DC people give it credit for.